Don’t Panic it’s a Bull Market

Have you ever heard the term “The trend is your friend”? This is the one phrase that always comes to mind when talking about the stock market. The trend for the market is up. How high can it go? It can go as high as it wants to go, but it will have its pullbacks. We would recommend using pullbacks as buying opportunities. Our research leads us to believe that we are in the middle of a “Secular Bull Market”. I am sure many of you are thinking what the heck is a “Secular Bull Market”? Here is the definition straight off the Investopedia website “A market driven by forces that could be in place for many years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise or fall over a long period of time. In a secular bull market, strong investor sentiment drives prices higher, as there are more net buyers than sellers. In a secular bear market, weak sentiment causes selling pressure over an extended period of time.” The market will and should have corrections along the way, but in our opinion, the trend is for the market to move higher over the long term. Many of you have been through the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and you don’t want to relive that experience. Who would? It was a horrible experience for many and it should never be forgotten. We use many indicators to guide us on how much exposure we should have to equities. One indicator that has been around since the late 1800s is still used today, which is the basis for all technical study of the market, is “Dow Theory”. The “Dow Theory” says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (industrial or transportation) advances above a previous important high, it is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in the other. This theory is not foolproof, but it has been proven correct many more times than not. The buy signal for the current bull market came in April of 2009 and we have had many more buy signals since. Look, the last true bull market lasted from 1982-2000, that’s eighteen years of uptrend aside from the 1987 crash which ended up being a great opportunity to invest. We are only in the fifth year of this secular bull market and I hear it every day when speaking with clients. “This market cannot continue to move higher”. I am telling you it can and it most likely will be based on not only good technical fundamentals but also on the fact that corporate earnings continue to improve as the economy improves. Companies are ripe with cash and will reinvest in their businesses as well as make acquisitions. There is also still a ton of money on the sidelines waiting to get in. Look, if you invested your money in the S&P 500 Index at the end of the previous bull market in 2000 and calculated your return on investment without dividends, you would have only earned 1.78% annualized over that time frame. That is way below the stock market average over its history. I am telling you we have some catching up to do and waiting around to invest will end up costing you money in the end. We will never pick the top or the bottom of the market, but I know “Time in” the market is more important than “Timing” the market. If you would like to learn more about this topic or have your portfolio reviewed please contact Fogel Capital Management, 772 223-9686. The opinion expressed in this article is that of the author’s and should not be considered advice for your individual portfolio.